So we’re sitting at a table during the late stages of a multi-table tournament, are getting slammed by blinds the size of Seattle, and look down at our hole cards to see two beautiful queens.  We happily raise the blinds, and are distraught as the cut-off re-raises all in for his (and if we call…our) entire stack.  When considering whether our opponent has us beat, it’s also worthwhile knowing just how badly we’re in shape if we call in this spot and the villain tables an overpair.  To do this, it helps enormously to be aware of the poker hand percentages involved in hand situations which regularly arise in poker.  For example, just what are the odds of winning when facing off with queens vs aces?  Let’s take a look at some of the common examples.

Poker Pre Flop Odds & Probabilities

Probability of Being Dealt:

A Pocket Pair:

= 5.9%

Pocket Rockets:

= 0.45%

Two Suited Cards:

= 23.5%

Two Connected Cards:

= 15.7%

Odds & Probabilities of Hands Winning


The following are match ups typical of texas holdem.  Note that the probabilities are estimates only and will be slightly dependent upon the actual cards in play (if odds don’t add to 100 there is a % chance of a split).

Higher Pocket Pair vs Lower Pocket Pair

81.5%
18.5%

Over-Cards vs Lower Pocket Pair

47%
52%

Dominated Hand

72%
24%

Severely Dominated Hand

93%
6%

Two Unsuited Overcards vs Two Unsuited Undercards

62%
37%

64%
35%

Flop Odds & Probabilities

Probability of Flopping:

A Flush When Holding 2 Suited Cards:
Hole Cards:

Flopping:

0.84%

A Flush Draw When Holding 2 Suited Cards:
Hole Cards:

Flopping:

11%

Trips or Quads When Holding a Pair:
Hole Cards:

Flopping:

11.8%

Turn & River Odds & Probabilities

We frequently find ourselves with most of our decision making processes occurring post flop, where they are invariably tougher than pre-flop.  It’s essential that we have an understanding of calculating poker pot odds and the importance of poker implied odds when making such decisions.  However, it it also worthwhile remembering the following general odds to make our decisions a little faster, a lot easier, and can help determine whether we are continuing with good poker hands or not.
Probability of Hitting:

An Inside Straight Draw on the Turn or River:
Hole Cards:

Flop:       

16.5%

An Open-Ended Straight Draw on the Turn or River:
Hole Cards:

Flop:      

31.5%

A Flush Draw on the Turn or River:
Hole Cards:

Flop:      

35%

A Flush Draw or Open-Ended Straight Draw on the Turn or River:
Hole Cards:

Flop:      

54.1%

Taking the time to memorize some of these frequently arising probability percetages can go a long way to making the decisions at the table easier.

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